Schools try to decipher, drive down dropout rate

A third of Washington high school students don't make it tograduation.

With the federal No Child Left Behind law demanding that morestudents graduate in four years, researchers in the Office of theSuperintendent of Public Instruction have produced a new report thattries to explain what's happening.

Who are they? We don't know. Why did they drop out? It'scomplicated. How can schools help? The report offers suggestionsthat reflect work already in progress in many Clark County schools,such as efforts to create smaller and more personalized "learningcommunities."

As long as dropout rates have been tracked, numbers have beencrunched in various ways. One way is to count the students whodropped out during a particular year. That rate in the 2001-2002school year was 7.6 percent.

Another method, which No Child Left Behind requires, is to showthe figure as a percentage of students who enter as freshman andearn a diploma four years later, a number that's inevitably lessflattering. OSPI was unable to collect reliable data for this so-called "cohort" rate but estimates the statewide figure was 66percent.

Accurate cohort numbers for individual districts and schools arenot available. A new statewide system for student records shouldfix that problem in three to four years.

Finding out what derails students is even more sketchy. Among23,920 Washington students who dropped out in 2001-2002, almost halfof them simply disappeared.

"How many kids, if you were going to drop out, are going to stopby the counseling office and say, 'By the way, I'm going to dropout?'" said Ed Strozyk, who manages student data for the VancouverSchool District and previously did the same for OSPI.

Almost a third of the 12th-graders who dropped out in 2002 quitafter staying in school for four years, but failing to meetgraduation requirements, according to OSPI.

"As the graduation requirements across the state are raised,there's going to be more and more kids who need more than four yearsto graduate," said John Deeder, an assistant superintendent in theEvergreen School District. "I think that's just the way it's goingto be, and I think we need to erase the stigma of not graduating infour years."

About 8 percent of Washington 12th-graders who didn't finish in2002 continued working toward their diplomas the following year.

Under the federal law, however, those students now must becounted as dropouts. The same is true for students who earn GEDs ordiplomas modified for special education plans.

No stereotypes

Decades of research about dropouts fails to reveal any reliableprofile of a student likely to quit school. Some factors areeconomic, personal or cultural. Others can be traced to the schoolenvironment.

Poor students, students of color and students who frequently moveor change schools drop out in higher numbers. But most students whodrop out fit none of those categories.

"From past experience, it's really hard to generalize," agreedJohn Wellman, who has been a counselor at Evergreen High School for30 years.

"There are even some students who are quite bright who feel theyare not challenged," Wellman said. "One reason is lack ofattendance, possibly caused by a variety of factors -- a homesituation, poverty, substance abuse -- many of those things are notlisted on a survey that the state might do, or kids are unlikely togive that response."

Some students quit because they find school to be a cruelenvironment, with poor discipline, inadequate counseling, lowexpectations or no sense that what's being taught is relevant toreal life, according to the OSPI report. Discipline and attendancepolicies sometimes "push" struggling students out the door. Large,impersonal schools tend to have higher dropout rates.

Local districts respond

Clark County school districts have initiatives under way that theOSPI report says may help more students succeed.

The Vancouver, Evergreen and Battle Ground districts are workingto create small "learning communities" within large schools, withgrants from the federal government and the Bill and Melinda GatesFoundation.

Programs around the county provide extra help for studentsstruggling in early grades and offer mentors and tutors forfreshmen. Districts also offer alternative programs, such asVancouver's Lewis and Clark High School and Evergreen's Legacy HighSchool and Internet Academy.

Under Washington's plan to comply with No Child Left Behind,schools need a graduation rate of 73 percent in order to stay clearof remedial sanctions. That bar may get lowered because a statecommittee used inflated numbers when they set it, said OSPI researchdirector Pete Bylsma.

Until the 1960s, fewer than 50 percent of American studentsgraduated from high school. When getting a diploma became the norm,dropouts became seen and studied as a problem.

The OSPI cites research showing that dropouts earn 27 percentless than graduates and 58 percent less than college graduates.

Beginning in 2008, all Washington students must pass theWashington Assessment of Student Learning in order to graduate.Current research is inconclusive on the question of whether high-stakes testing makes more students drop out, Bylsma said.

"That's the $64,000 question: How do you raise expectations andincrease the student performance and the graduation rate?" Bylsmasaid. "It's a lot of hard work, and we're going to have to do thatwork," he said. "It's almost a moral imperative."

Estimated graduation rates in 2001

National 70%

Washington (ranked 39th) 66%

Oregon (ranked 40th) 66%

North Dakota (highest) 89%

Florida (lowest) 56%

Source: The Manhattan Institute, September 2003

Gregg Blesch writes about schools and education for TheColumbian. Reach him at 360-759-8015 or by e-mailgregg.blesch@columbian.com.